Fertility in Vietnam has reached its lowest level in history. For three consecutive years, the birth rate has been below the replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman, and this trend is expected to continue in the near future, posing major challenges for demographic work.
During a conference held on December 27, 2024, the Director of the Population Department, Le Thanh Dung, stressed that only a third of the demographic policy objectives have been achieved. For example, average life expectancy has reached 74.5 years, exceeding the initial objective of 73.8 years, but the imbalance of sex ratio at birth remains problematic, with 112 boys for 100 girls, and the total fertility rate continues to decline, reaching 1.91 children per woman in 2024.
In 2024, although considered a favorable year according to the lunar calendar, births continued to decline. Several factors influence this decline. Women with a level of education below primary have on average 2.35 children, against 1.98 child for those with a level above secondary school. Poor families have a birth rate of 2.4 children, while it is 2 children for wealthy families. Urban women, often more educated, have children later and in fewer numbers, with a fertility rate of 127 children per 1,000 women among 25-29 year olds in urban areas, compared to 147 children per 1,000 women among 20-24 year olds in rural areas.
The decline in the birth rate in Vietnam has significant consequences. The rapid aging of the population could mean that in 2069, for every 2 children, there will be 3 people aged 60 or over. This risks causing labor shortages, increasing social and health costs, and slowing economic growth. If this trend continues, Vietnam could enter a phase of demographic decline within the next 35 years.
To respond to these challenges, the government has set ambitious objectives for 2025. The fertility rate should return to 2.1 children per woman, average life expectancy will reach 74.6 years, and the sex ratio at birth will be reduced to 111 boys for 100 girls. Measures such as the development of a population law, the development of 12 national population programs, and the intensification of prenatal screening will be implemented. The government also plans to promote the use of modern contraceptives among 5 million new users.
The average age at first marriage is also increasing, from 24.1 years in 1999 has 27.2 years in 2023. This trend reflects a transition towards a pattern of late marriage, particularly marked in the South-East region, where the average age at first marriage is estimated at 30.4 years in 2024.
By 2030, priorities include reducing regional imbalances, improving the quality of life of newborns, and more sustainable management of the challenges posed by population aging. With a coordinated strategy and proactively allocated resources, Vietnam hopes to address these challenges while ensuring balanced and sustainable growth of its population.
This demographic turning point requires sustained efforts and strong political will to guarantee a stable and prosperous future for the country.
